Ghana’s heavy dependence on Dubai as a destination for small-scale gold exports is exposing the cedi to potential pressure as conflict in the Middle East disrupts key air transport routes used to ship bullion.
The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have led to airspace closures across parts of the Middle East, slowing flights that normally carry gold shipments from Ghana to Dubai, the main hub for the country’s small-scale gold trade.
In 2025, Ghana exported about 103,804 kilograms of small-scale gold through the Ghana Gold Board, with more than 72% sent to Dubai and roughly 25% to India, meaning the two markets absorbed nearly 99% of such exports.
This concentration has become a risk for the Ghanaian economy because gold export proceeds play a crucial role in supplying dollars to the domestic foreign exchange market and supporting the cedi.
Under the current system, the Ghana Gold Board buys gold from miners in cedis and exports it for foreign currency, which is later exchanged with the Bank of Ghana and injected into the local currency market.
However, the ongoing conflict has slowed shipments, reducing the pace at which export proceeds return to Ghana and potentially weakening one of the country’s key sources of foreign exchange inflows.
Analysts say the situation is compounded by the lack of a comprehensive traceability system in Ghana’s small-scale gold sector, which prevents the country from easily accessing stricter markets such as Switzerland and the United States.
As a result, Ghana relies heavily on markets like Dubai, where regulatory scrutiny over the origin of gold is relatively less stringent.
Authorities are now exploring alternative markets, including India, but diversifying sales could raise logistical costs and force Ghana to offer steeper discounts to buyers.
While the cedi remains relatively stable at about 10.79 to the dollar and Ghana holds more than $13 billion in reserves, prolonged disruptions to gold exports could eventually intensify pressure on the currency.