Norwegian oil and gas investment is set to ease in 2026 and beyond, as a wave of major offshore projects reaches completion and fewer new developments enter the pipeline, according to a quarterly survey released on Thursday by Statistics Norway.
The survey shows the sector, Norway’s largest industry, expects to invest 255 billion Norwegian crowns ($27 billion) in 2026, down from a record 273 billion crowns in 2025, reflecting a slowdown after three years of unusually strong growth.
Norway, which supplies about 2% of the world’s oil and roughly 30% of Europe’s gas, became the continent’s largest pipeline gas supplier after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, making its investment trends closely watched across Europe.
The earlier surge in spending was driven by generous temporary tax incentives introduced in 2022, which encouraged companies to fast-track and approve a large number of offshore oil and gas projects.
However, many of those projects are now nearing completion, and the pipeline of new developments is thinner, leading to a lower outlook for investment activity in the coming years.
Statistics Norway cautioned that the 2026 figure could still change, as several projects are expected to submit plans for development and operation (PDOs) later this year, which could lift investment estimates.
The 2025 investment forecast was slightly revised down to 273 billion crowns from 275 billion in a previous survey, while the 2026 outlook was revised upward to 255 billion from an earlier estimate of 249 billion.
Looking further ahead, initial projections for 2027 place investment at 201 billion crowns, largely tied to spending on existing producing fields and smaller nearby discoveries.
The agency said the largest ongoing field developments are due to be completed by 2027, and these are unlikely to be fully replaced by new projects of similar size.
As a result, Norway’s oil and gas sector is entering a phase of consolidation, marking the end of a tax-driven investment boom that helped underpin Europe’s energy security in the wake of the Ukraine war.