The World Bank has projected that the average price of crude oil will be $64 per barrel in 2025, as detailed in its April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook. This forecast marks a significant decrease from the $80.7 per barrel average in 2024.
The institution indicates that prices may further decline to an average of $60 per barrel later in the year. The report attributes the recent price drop to concerns about global economic growth, noting that oil prices fell below $63 per barrel in early April 2025, the lowest since April 2021. This decline was triggered by the announcement of large trade tariffs by the United States on April 2, 2025, leading to a $12 per barrel decrease over four trading days. Despite a slight increase of $1 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, oil demand has seen a modest rise of 1.2% compared to the previous quarter.
Notably, demand in China increased by 1.4%, while consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa remained flat. The slowdown in oil demand growth in China and other regions can be partly attributed to the rising popularity of electric vehicles, which reduced oil demand by approximately 0.45 million barrels per day. Overall, the World Bank’s outlook reflects a complex interplay of global economic factors influencing oil prices.