The World Bank has issued a warning that commodity prices, including oil, are expected to decline sharply by approximately 12% this year, primarily due to weakening global economic growth.
This forecast presents potential challenges for the Ghanaian government’s revenue projections from oil and gold exports outlined in the 2025 budget. The government anticipates generating over one billion dollars from crude oil exports, based on a benchmark price of $74 per barrel. However, the World Bank predicts that the average oil price could fall to around $64 per barrel.
This decline is expected to apply significant downward pressure on the total commodity index in 2025, coinciding with a slowdown in global oil consumption and increased supply. The report also indicates that more than half of the commodities are likely to see price decreases, many exceeding 10%.
Such price drops could adversely affect economic activity and inflation rates in developing countries, including Ghana. While the World Bank acknowledges the risks of price spikes due to geopolitical tensions or extreme weather events, the overall outlook remains cautious. The situation underscores the vulnerability of Ghana’s economy to fluctuations in global commodity prices.