South Africa could face a return of rolling power cuts toward the end of this decade if new gas-fired power plants are not built on time, the state utility Eskom said in a new outlook report.
The warning is contained in Eskom’s Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2026–2030, released this week, which evaluates whether electricity supply will be sufficient to meet demand over the next five years.
Eskom said the risk increases as ageing coal plants are retired under the country’s energy transition plans, creating a growing gap in dependable baseload generation.
To fill that gap, South Africa is relying heavily on gas-fired power stations, but the country currently has no large-scale liquefied natural gas production and would need to import LNG.
The construction of combined-cycle gas turbine plants also faces long lead times and a high risk of delays, echoing problems seen at Eskom’s coal megaprojects, Medupi and Kusile.
Environmental opposition to domestic oil and gas exploration is further slowing efforts to secure fuel supplies for future gas plants.
Energy analysts say gas can help stabilise the grid during peak demand but is unlikely to fully replace coal as a reliable baseload source in the near term.
Without timely investment in new capacity, Eskom warned that supply constraints could once again outpace demand later in the decade.
The utility said this would undermine recent gains in stabilising South Africa’s electricity system after years of severe load-shedding.
Eskom urged faster decision-making on new generation projects to avoid a renewed power crisis that could hurt economic growth and investor confidence.