China’s coal-dominated thermal power generation fell in 2025 for the first time in 10 years, official data showed on Monday, as rapid growth in renewables met rising electricity demand.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed thermal power output declined 1% to 6.29 trillion kilowatt-hours, even as total power consumption climbed to a record high.
The drop marks a positive signal for Beijing’s decarbonisation drive as it works toward peaking carbon emissions by 2030, analysts said.
Thermal generation fell more sharply in December, down 3.2% from a year earlier, reflecting the cumulative impact of large-scale renewable capacity additions.
Peng Chengyao of S&P Global Energy said record renewable build-outs, combined with slower power demand growth of about 5% in 2025, squeezed coal’s share of the generation mix.
Overall electricity use still surged past 10 trillion kWh for the first time, according to the National Energy Administration, driven by data services and electric-vehicle manufacturing.
Hydropower and nuclear output continued to grow steadily, while coal production still edged up to a record high despite weaker generation demand.
S&P forecasts thermal power output will remain subdued in 2026 as renewables expand and demand growth stabilises.
“This structural shift in China’s power generation mix is difficult to reverse,” said Feng Dongbin of coal analytics firm Sxcoal.