Oil prices showed minimal change as the market reacted to OPEC+ plans to pause output increases, amid concerns over a potential supply glut and weak manufacturing data from Asia. As of 0959 GMT, Brent crude futures were slightly down by 1 cent at $64.76 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell by 3 cents to $60.95. OPEC+ announced on Sunday it would increase output by just 137,000 barrels per day in December and halt further increases in the first quarter of the following year, a decision reflecting the anticipated surplus in the market.
Warren Patterson from ING emphasized that the OPEC+ decision acknowledges the substantial oil surplus expected early next year, which remains uncertain due to potential disruptions in Russian oil flows from U.S. sanctions. RBC Capital’s Helima Croft highlighted Russia’s unpredictable supply situation, exacerbated by sanctions and ongoing conflict, such as a recent drone attack that targeted a key Russian oil port.
Despite geopolitical tensions, analysts have maintained their oil price forecasts, citing that rising OPEC+ output and weak demand are countering supply risks. The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude output reached a record high of 13.8 million barrels per day in August. Additionally, persistent challenges in Asia’s manufacturing sector, the world’s largest oil-consuming region, were revealed in recent business surveys, further influencing market dynamics.