Ghana’s crude oil production has declined for a sixth consecutive year, falling by nearly half since its 2019 peak and costing the country billions of dollars in lost revenue, according to a new report by the Institute for Energy Security (IES).
The report, authored by Smith Prosper Boahene and Prince Lumor, says crude oil output dropped from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.30 million barrels in 2025, a decline of almost 48 percent. The Energy Commission projects production will fall further to 34.83 million barrels in 2026, extending the downward trend into a seventh year.
IES described the decline as a structural crisis rather than a temporary downturn, attributing it to ageing oil fields, inadequate upstream investment and the failure to sign new petroleum agreements since 2018.
The think tank said the production slump has significantly reduced petroleum revenues, with government receipts falling by more than 43 percent, from US$1.36 billion in 2024 to US$770.27 million in 2025. It estimated Ghana lost more than US$16.5 billion in potential gross oil revenue between 2019 and 2025.
According to the report, production remains concentrated in the Jubilee, TEN and Sankofa Gye Nyame fields, all of which are experiencing natural depletion. Although the Jubilee field remained the country’s largest producer in 2025, it recorded a decline of more than 30 percent, partly due to a planned maintenance shutdown.
IES warned that falling crude oil production also threatens domestic gas supplies for thermal power generation, increases dependence on imported fuels and reduces government revenue for national development. It noted that revenues to the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) have also declined sharply.
Government has acknowledged the production decline and announced measures to reverse the trend, including securing more than US$3.5 billion in investment commitments for additional drilling, reviewing upstream fiscal policies and extending petroleum agreements to support continued production at the Jubilee and TEN fields through 2040.
The IES is calling for urgent reforms, including the resumption of competitive petroleum licensing rounds, accelerated investment in exploration and production, strengthened oversight of planned investments and measures to enhance GNPC’s financial capacity.
The report concludes that reversing Ghana’s prolonged oil production decline will require sustained investment, improved operational efficiency, stronger institutions and policy reforms to restore investor confidence and secure the country’s long-term energy future.