Ghana’s crude oil production has continued its downward trend for a sixth consecutive year, with the country losing billions of dollars in potential revenue due to declining output, according to a new report by the Institute for Energy Security (IES).
The report, prepared by Smith Prosper Boahene and Prince Lumor, attributes the sustained decline to ageing oil fields, inadequate upstream investment and the failure to sign new petroleum agreements since 2018.
According to the report, crude oil production dropped from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.30 million barrels in 2025, representing a decline of nearly 48%. The Energy Commission projects production will fall further to 34.83 million barrels in 2026, extending the downward trend into a seventh consecutive year.
The report describes the decline as a long-term structural challenge rather than a temporary setback, citing a combination of operational constraints and policy shortcomings.
The prolonged decline has also significantly affected government revenue from the petroleum sector.
IES reported that petroleum receipts fell by 43.27%, declining from US$1.36 billion in 2024 to US$770.27 million in 2025, largely due to lower production volumes and a drop in the average realised crude oil price from US$86.12 to US$74.93 per barrel.
During the first half of 2025, crude oil production declined by 26% year-on-year to 18.42 million barrels, while petroleum revenue dropped from US$840 million to US$370 million.
The think tank estimates that Ghana lost more than US$16.5 billion in potential gross oil revenue between 2019 and 2025. Based on a modelling scenario in which production grew by an average of 3% annually through sustained drilling, new petroleum agreements and improved reservoir management, cumulative output would have been approximately 221 million barrels higher than actual production.
The report identifies natural depletion in Ghana’s mature oil fields, limited reserve replacement and the absence of new upstream agreements as the main drivers of the production decline.
Ghana’s crude oil production is currently concentrated in the Jubilee, TEN and Sankofa-Gye Nyame fields.
Although the Jubilee Field remained the country’s largest producing asset in 2025 with 22.2 million barrels, it also recorded the steepest year-on-year decline of more than 30%, partly due to a planned maintenance shutdown between March 26 and April 8.
IES noted that production gains achieved in 2024 under the Jubilee South East drilling programme demonstrated that targeted upstream investment can help slow production decline.
The report also stated that while the COVID-19 pandemic worsened production challenges in 2021, the downward trend had already begun before the pandemic.
Beyond production losses, IES warned that the continued decline poses broader risks to Ghana’s energy security and economy.
The report said revenue accruing to the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) declined by more than 61%, a situation compounded by the reduction of GNPC’s share of petroleum revenue from 30% to 15%.
It also referenced findings from the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) 2025 Annual Report, which highlighted increasing cash-call obligations on the TEN Field and US$561.65 million in petroleum revenue linked to GNPC subsidiary Explorco that remains unaccounted for.
According to IES, falling crude oil production could also reduce domestic gas supply for thermal power generation, increase reliance on imported fuels and expose the economy to exchange rate volatility and global energy price fluctuations.
Petroleum revenue currently contributes about 10% of total government revenue and supports several national infrastructure and development programmes.
The government has outlined several measures aimed at reversing the production decline.
In the 2026 Budget Statement, the Ministry of Finance acknowledged that average daily crude oil production had fallen from approximately 200,000 barrels per day in 2019 to about 150,000 barrels per day in 2025.
To reverse the trend, the government said it has secured more than US$3.5 billion in investment commitments, including a US$2 billion programme to drill 20 additional wells in the Jubilee and TEN fields, as well as a US$1.5 billion Memorandum of Intent with partners operating in the Offshore Cape Three Points block.
GNPC also plans to commence drilling activities in the Voltaian Basin from October 2026.
In addition, the government is reviewing fiscal and regulatory policies governing the upstream petroleum sector to attract fresh investment from international oil companies, including Shell.
Parliament has also approved extensions to Tullow Oil’s petroleum agreements covering the West Cape Three Points and Deep Water Tano blocks, allowing operations at the Jubilee and TEN fields to continue until December 31, 2040. The agreements also provide for GNPC to increase its participating interest in the fields by 10% from July 20, 2036.
The administration of President John Dramani Mahama has further pledged to restore investor confidence through the settlement of legacy energy-sector debts and renewed efforts to stimulate upstream petroleum investment.
IES is urging the government to resume the negotiation and award of new petroleum agreements through transparent licensing rounds while fast-tracking the planned drilling programme.
The think tank also called on Parliament and PIAC to closely monitor implementation of the US$2 billion upstream investment programme and recommended reforms to strengthen GNPC, including resolving the outstanding US$561.65 million linked to Explorco and reviewing the reduction in the corporation’s petroleum revenue allocation.
Meanwhile, the Africa Sustainable Energy Centre (ASEC) cautioned against using petroleum funds to finance domestic gas and power infrastructure, warning that such a move could weaken the funds’ role in supporting foreign exchange stability and worsen Ghana’s estimated US$14 billion energy-sector debt.
Financial economist Professor Lord Mensah also attributed the decline in petroleum revenues to inconsistent fiscal and investment policies, urging the government to channel oil proceeds into infrastructure, agriculture and export-led economic diversification.
IES concluded that Ghana’s prolonged decline in crude oil production requires urgent and coordinated policy intervention, stressing that sustained investment, improved operational efficiency, stronger institutions and diversified revenue management will be essential to reversing the trend.