Europe’s planned exit from Russian gas contracts by 2027 could create new opportunities for African LNG producers, as the European Union seeks alternative sources of supply.
Under a provisional agreement, EU member states will be prohibited from concluding long-term LNG contracts with Russian suppliers from January 2027. Long-term pipeline gas contracts are also expected to end later in 2027, subject to storage conditions.
Short-term Russian gas contracts signed before June 2025 are expected to expire during 2026, while amendments to existing contracts will be restricted from increasing volumes.
Each EU member state will also be required to submit a national diversification plan outlining how it intends to replace Russian gas, with the European Commission given stronger oversight of the process.
Africa positioned to supply Europe
Africa could be among the suppliers positioned to benefit from the shift, given its existing production base and geographic proximity to European gas markets.
The continent produced approximately 331 billion cubic metres of natural gas in 2025, with Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt among the leading producers.
Growth is increasingly expected from Sub-Saharan Africa. LNG exports from the region are forecast to rise by nearly 175%, from 35.7 billion cubic metres in 2024 to about 98 billion cubic metres annually by 2034.
Several major projects are expected to contribute to this expansion. Greater Tortue Ahmeyim, located offshore Mauritania and Senegal, began production in 2025, while Congo LNG Phase 2 has also added new capacity.
Mozambique is another major growth centre. The Coral South floating LNG facility currently produces about 3.4 million tonnes per year, with Coral North targeting an additional 3.5 million tonnes by 2028. The planned Rovuma LNG project is expected to add up to 18 million tonnes through 12 modular trains.
Tanzania also holds significant potential, with an estimated 57 trillion cubic feet of gas resources, although the country is yet to secure a signed host government agreement.
Competition could favour nearby suppliers
African gas producers will, however, face a highly competitive global LNG market.
About 93 million tonnes per year of new liquefaction capacity entered the market across 2025 and 2026, increasing the prospect of ample supply and stronger competition among exporters.
In such a market, buyers are likely to consider factors including production costs, contract terms and shipping distances.
Africa’s geographic proximity to European regasification terminals could therefore provide its LNG producers with a logistical advantage as Europe moves to diversify away from Russian gas.