Rating agency Fitch Ratings has projected that the Government of Ghana may extend its temporary fuel relief programme as global crude oil prices continue to rise, increasing pressure on domestic fuel costs.
The agency noted that an extension would likely depend on whether the fiscal cost remains manageable, particularly if it stays below 0.1 percent of GDP per month and can be absorbed through savings in other government spending areas.
This projection was included in Fitch’s latest assessment of Ghana’s economy, where it also upgraded the country’s Long Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating from “B minus” to “B,” while maintaining a Positive Outlook.
Fitch explained that the government could be pushed to continue the intervention due to the potential inflationary impact of rising fuel prices on households and businesses.
The fuel relief programme was introduced by the Government of Ghana on April 16, 2026, as a short term measure to shield consumers from surging petroleum prices linked to global crude oil increases.
Under the arrangement, the state absorbed GH¢2 per litre of diesel and GH¢0.36 per litre of petrol to reduce the burden on consumers.The policy, which began on April 16, was designed to run for one month and is therefore scheduled to expire on May 16, 2026.
At the time of its introduction, Government Communications Minister Hon. Felix Kwakye Ofosu explained that the intervention was necessary due to sharp increases in international oil prices, which had driven up local pump prices and affected transport and economic activity.
He added that government remained committed to stabilising prices, protecting livelihoods, and supporting Ghana’s economic recovery amid external shocks.
On the global market, crude oil prices have risen again following geopolitical tensions linked to proposed peace discussions involving Iran.
Brent crude is currently trading at about $105 per barrel, adding further pressure to fuel pricing expectations.
Locally, petroleum prices are expected to be reviewed from May 16, 2026, with possible increases if global market pressures persist.Petrol prices have already increased slightly by between 0.10 percent and 0.51 percent per litre, while diesel has risen by about 6.77 percent.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices are also projected to rise between 7.24 percent and 10.41 percent.
Analysts attribute the LPG increase to delayed effects from previous tender arrangements that temporarily shielded consumers from earlier price increases.
Fitch further stated that inflation is expected to rise gradually toward the end of the year due to higher energy costs, although it is still projected to trend downward on an annual average basis through 2026 and 2027.
The agency also expects the Bank of Ghana to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance and pause further easing after a cumulative 1,400 basis point reduction in the policy rate between July 2025 and March 2026, bringing it to 14 percent.
On Ghana’s fiscal outlook, Fitch projected that public debt will continue to decline to around 46 percent of GDP by 2027, below the forecast median of 51 percent for similarly rated economies.
This improvement is attributed to fiscal consolidation efforts and a strong appreciation of the cedi in 2025.Fitch also forecast average economic growth of about 5 percent through 2027, driven by gold production, improving consumer confidence, easing inflation, and reduced borrowing costs.
The report added that Ghana’s current account surplus is expected to remain strong in 2026, following a record surplus of 8.2 percent of GDP in 2025, supported by sustained high gold prices.