Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is expected to cut its official selling prices (OSP) for Asian buyers in October after hitting five-month highs in September, according to a Reuters survey of refiners.
Five industry sources said the price of flagship Arab Light crude could drop by 40–70 cents per barrel, bringing it down to $2.50–$2.80 above benchmark Dubai quotes. Other grades such as Arab Extra Light, Medium, and Heavy may also see reductions of 40–60 cents.
The expected cuts follow a 55-cent decline in Dubai’s premium to swaps this month, reflecting easing market strength. Spot prices had rallied in June and July on robust Asian demand and limited Saudi exports during peak summer energy use.
In response, state-owned Saudi Aramco had raised prices for two consecutive months, sending September Arab Light to its highest since spring. But higher costs discouraged some Asian refiners, especially in China, who turned instead to cheaper Russian and U.S. oil.
The shift in buying patterns, along with India resuming imports of Russian crude, has weakened spot prices in recent weeks. Analysts say Saudi Arabia may need a sizeable cut to maintain competitiveness in Asia.
The timing comes as OPEC+ boosts output in a bid to defend market share, increasing global supply and adding further pressure on prices.
Saudi Arabia’s monthly OSP decisions are closely watched, as they guide pricing for other Middle Eastern producers including Iran, Kuwait, and Iraq, influencing around 9 million barrels per day of Asian imports.
Refiners said the October adjustment will be shaped by both customer feedback and shifts in product values, as Aramco weighs how to balance market share with revenue goals.