Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, has warned that global commercial oil inventories are declining rapidly, with only a few weeks of supply remaining as the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt global energy markets.
Speaking to reporters on Monday during the Group of Seven finance leaders’ meeting in Paris, Mr. Birol said the release of strategic oil reserves had injected about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day into the market, but cautioned that such reserves are limited.
He explained that rising seasonal demand linked to spring farming activities and the summer travel period across the Northern Hemisphere is expected to accelerate the depletion of inventories due to higher consumption of diesel, fertiliser, jet fuel, and gasoline.
According to Mr. Birol, the global oil market had recorded a significant surplus and high commercial stock levels before the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February. However, he said the conflict has since reversed the situation sharply.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently projected that global oil supply would fall short of demand in 2026 as disruptions linked to the Iran conflict continue to affect Middle East production.
The agency also reported that global oil inventories dropped by a record 246 million barrels in March and April combined.
In response to the market disruption, the 32-member IEA coordinated a historic release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves in March to stabilise global markets, with about 164 million barrels already released by May 8.
The agency further revised its oil supply outlook, forecasting a decline of about 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026 due to the conflict, compared to an earlier projection of a 1.5 million bpd decline.