A legal dispute over land earmarked for Dangote Industries’ proposed refinery in Lamu, Kenya, has disrupted preparations for the project’s groundbreaking, raising concerns about its development timeline and implications for East Africa’s fuel security.
The Malindi Environment and Land Court has issued an interim order directing parties to maintain the status quo on the disputed land pending a hearing scheduled for October 14, following a petition by 133 residents claiming ancestral rights over the site.
The petitioners contend that the land, identified as LR No. 13061 in Chandavai, Lamu County, forms part of their ancestral heritage and are seeking legal recognition and compensation.
The order requires parties to refrain from undertaking activities on the land until the matter is heard, affecting preparations for the groundbreaking initially scheduled for September 30.
Dangote Industries has maintained its commitment to the proposed 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery, although the ongoing legal proceedings introduce uncertainty over the project’s immediate timeline.
The African Energy Chamber (AEC) has criticised the court action, expressing support for Dangote Industries and describing the refinery as a strategic investment for East Africa’s energy security.
In a statement, AEC Executive Chairman NJ Ayuk acknowledged the need to respect community rights and address legitimate concerns over land and compensation but urged that the dispute be resolved without prolonged delays to the project.
“Africa cannot continue exporting its energy security and then acting surprised when conflicts thousands of kilometers away determine what our people pay for fuel,” Ayuk said.
He called for the rights of Lamu communities to be respected and outstanding issues resolved fairly and promptly, while emphasising the importance of advancing the refinery.
A Strategic Investment for East Africa
The proposed $15–16 billion refinery is expected to reshape the region’s petroleum market by reducing dependence on imported refined products.
Kenya has had no operational refinery since Kenya Petroleum Refineries ceased refining activities in 2013, leaving the country and the wider region heavily reliant on imported fuel.
According to the AEC, East Africa currently imports approximately 90% of its fuel requirements, with about 75% of those imports sourced from the Middle East. The ongoing conflict in the region and disruptions to global oil trade have further highlighted the risks associated with this dependence.
The planned Lamu facility is modelled on Dangote’s 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Nigeria, which has contributed to reducing the country’s reliance on imported petroleum products and expanding its refined fuel exports.
The Nigerian facility is also undergoing an expansion programme aimed at increasing its capacity to 1.2 million barrels per day.
Dangote has indicated a target completion date of 2030 for the Kenyan refinery, making the resolution of the land dispute significant to the project’s development schedule.
While the AEC has warned against what it describes as a pattern of legal and activist opposition delaying strategic energy infrastructure across Africa, the Lamu case highlights the need to balance major investment ambitions with land rights, community interests and compliance with Kenyan law.
For the proposed refinery to proceed, the outstanding legal questions will need to be addressed through the judicial process, with implications for both the project’s timeline and East Africa’s plans to strengthen domestic refining capacity.