Ghanaian motorists and households face higher fuel prices in the second half of September, with petrol, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) all projected to rise as international crude and refined-product prices surge, according to the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).
COMAC’s pricing outlook for Sept. 16-30 projects ex-pump prices for petrol to increase by 7.75%-9.63%, while diesel prices are expected to rise by 4.26%-6.97%. LPG prices are projected to increase by 0.85%-3.22%.
The forecasts come as benchmark crude prices climbed above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, amid renewed hostilities in the Middle East, stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and disruptions to oil supplies.
International crude oil prices rose 12.29% to an average of $104.01 per barrel for the Sept. 16 pricing window, COMAC said. Refined petroleum products also recorded sharp increases, with petrol rising 13.21%, diesel 7.50% and LPG 16.42%.
According to the report, rising global crude oil and refined-product prices were the main drivers of the projected increases in Ghana’s ex-pump prices.
Tightening supply
Global oil production fell by 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) month-on-month to 100.1 million bpd in August, according to the outlook, with more than 10 million bpd of Gulf output remaining shut amid heightened security risks.
Supply is expected to decline by 5.7 million bpd to 100.7 million bpd in 2026, with the recovery of Gulf production deferred to 2027, COMAC said.
Global oil demand is meanwhile forecast to decline by 2.5 million bpd in 2026, 940,000 bpd below an earlier August forecast, as stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations delay the normalisation of oil flows into 2027.
Oil markets have moved into steep backwardation as disruptions in the Middle East and Russia tighten available supply, while demand shifts towards Atlantic Basin crude. Higher security risks and stronger demand for vessels have also driven tanker costs sharply higher.
Analysts cited in the outlook see oil prices potentially rising towards $120 a barrel if supply threats persist, while a stabilisation of exports could allow prices to fall towards $80.
Government intervention cushions diesel
The government will maintain a temporary reduction in selected statutory diesel margins under Ghana’s Petroleum Price Build-Up, effective Sept. 16 until further notice.
COMAC said the extension follows the continued rise in international petroleum prices and forms part of government intervention aimed at cushioning consumers from higher pump prices.
The measure preserves the government-industry burden-sharing arrangement introduced on April 16, 2026.
As a result, diesel’s projected increase is lower than the movement in its international benchmark would otherwise imply, COMAC said.
Cedi depreciation adds pressure
Foreign-exchange movements are also contributing to the pricing outlook.
The cedi depreciated by 1.01% to 11.4849 per U.S. dollar based on average bank rates between Aug. 27 and Sept. 11, COMAC said.
Intervention by the Bank of Ghana helped ease pressure in the foreign-exchange market, reduce speculative positioning and narrow the cedi’s year-to-date depreciation, according to the outlook.
The combination of higher international crude and refined-product prices, alongside the weaker cedi, is expected to increase the cost of imported petroleum products during the Sept. 16-30 pricing window.
COMAC’s projected ex-pump adjustments are:
- Petrol: up 7.75%-9.63%
- Diesel: up 4.26%-6.97%
- LPG: up 0.85%-3.22%
The projections indicate that petrol faces the largest potential percentage adjustment among the three products, while LPG has the narrowest projected increase. Diesel prices are expected to benefit from the temporary statutory-margin intervention.
The outlook remains sensitive to developments in the international oil market, particularly the security situation in major producing and transit regions, the resumption of disrupted exports and movements in the cedi.
Click Here to read the full COMAC Pricing Outlook Report.
Source: Energy Ghana