The World Bank forecasts that crude oil prices will average $60 per barrel in 2026, a decline from the expected $68 per barrel in 2025, according to its latest Commodity Markets Outlook. This decrease is anticipated to be beneficial for inflation. The report indicates that oil prices will continue to fall in 2026 due to moderated consumption growth and rising supply, with a subsequent increase to $65 per barrel in 2027 as the market rebalances.
This forecast is based on assumptions of stable OPEC+ production, no significant escalation of armed conflicts, and weak demand growth compared to the 2015-2019 average. The World Bank projects that global oil supply will see a substantial rise, reaching a record 108.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, driven primarily by new production coming onstream.
OPEC+ is expected to contribute significantly to this increase, with nearly half of the growth in 2025 attributed to their higher production targets. In contrast, global oil consumption growth is anticipated to be moderate, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting an increase of about 0.7 mb/d each year. Notably, China and India will account for a significant portion of this demand growth, although China’s oil consumption is limited by the rapid shift to electric vehicles. Currently, Brent crude prices are around $63 per barrel, reflecting the ongoing dynamics in the oil market.