The ongoing Iran war has significantly reshaped global energy flows, weakening OPEC’s traditional role as “swing supplier” and expanding United States influence in oil markets.
The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off millions of barrels of crude, limiting supply from key Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia, and reducing OPEC’s ability to stabilise prices.
In response, the United States has stepped in with record exports of crude and refined products, alongside releases from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to cushion global shortages, particularly in Asia.
Analysts say Washington’s growing dominance reflects a shift from coordinated production control to market-driven influence backed by scale and policy tools such as sanctions adjustments.
However, experts caution that while the U.S. is now acting as a de facto stabiliser, it cannot fully replicate OPEC’s structured supply management role.