OPEC+ set to consider further oil output rise at Sunday meeting

OPEC+ is expected to discuss a possible increase in oil production when eight key members meet on Sunday, according to two sources within the alliance.

The move would position major producers to quickly add supply if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resume.

The meeting comes as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil transit route, disrupting flows from several Middle Eastern exporters.

As a result, crude prices have surged to nearly $120 per barrel, the highest level in four years.

At their last meeting on March 1, the group agreed to raise output modestly by 206,000 barrels per day for April after keeping production steady in the first quarter due to concerns about oversupply. Analysts expect a similar increase to be considered for May.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have all reduced output because shipments through Hormuz remain constrained. Meanwhile, Russian production has also faced disruptions following repeated drone attacks on its infrastructure.

Sources said any new increase would likely have limited immediate impact on global supply but would signal that OPEC+ is ready to raise production once tanker traffic through the strait resumes.

While Russia, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman are not directly affected by the closure, their ability to boost production remains limited, leaving only a few producers with significant spare capacity.

Saudi Arabia has partly mitigated the disruption by rerouting crude exports through its Red Sea port of Yanbu, while the UAE continues to ship oil from Fujairah, which lies outside the Strait of Hormuz.

The eight-country meeting will take place alongside a session of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which oversees the group’s production policy. Formal consultations between members have not yet begun, and one source said a pause in output increases remains possible if export constraints persist.