Oil prices continued their downward trend for a fifth consecutive day, marking the longest losing streak since early August, as concerns over rising global supply overshadowed geopolitical tensions. On Thursday, global benchmark Brent crude slipped toward $66 a barrel after dropping 2.8% over the previous four sessions, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate hovered near $62.
The decline comes amid signs that production may soon outpace demand, with forecasts pointing to a potential surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026. Market analysts warn that increased output from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers is setting the stage for one of the largest supply gluts in recent years.
Adding to the pressure, Iraq is expected to resume crude exports through Kurdistan after a two-year suspension caused by a payment dispute. The move could return about 230,000 barrels per day to global markets, further tipping the balance toward oversupply.
The International Energy Agency and other market watchers have cautioned that a rapid return of previously shuttered barrels, combined with rising production outside the OPEC alliance, could push supply above demand by a record margin.
Energy analyst Gao Mingyu of SDIC Essence Futures described the market sentiment as “bearish,” citing the imminent surge in Iraqi exports as a key factor in the continuing price slide.
Despite ongoing geopolitical risks—including calls from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney for stronger secondary sanctions on Russia and pressure from former U.S. President Donald Trump for Europe to cut Russian energy imports—supply concerns remain the dominant force weighing on prices.
Crude oil is now on track for a narrow quarterly decline, as expectations of a global glut outweigh fears of disruptions from Russia or other conflict zones. Analysts say that without coordinated production cuts, prices may struggle to find support in the coming months.
The combination of increasing output, easing demand growth, and muted policy responses underscores the challenges facing producers as the market braces for a potential oversupply into 2026.