China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell by 1% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to a new study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
The study, published by UK-based Carbon Brief, highlights that emissions from the power sector — China’s largest source of greenhouse gases — dropped by 3% during the six-month period.
Lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta attributed the decline to a sharp increase in renewable electricity, particularly from China’s fast-expanding solar power fleet.
With record solar capacity additions expected in 2025, analysts believe the country is on track for a full-year decline in emissions.
The last recorded annual drop in China’s emissions was in 2022, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s economic slowdown.
Coal consumption for power generation fell 3% between January and June, although natural gas use for electricity rose by 6%.
Sectors such as building materials, metals, cement, and steel also reported lower emissions, partly linked to a weak property market.
However, emissions from China’s chemicals industry continued to rise, driven by a 20% increase in coal use for synthetic fuels and petrochemicals.
CREA’s analysis warns that coal-to-chemicals growth has added 3% to China’s emissions since 2020 and could add a further 2% by 2029 if trends continue.