LThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have announced a modest increase in oil output quotas, raising production by 206,000 barrels per day for May. The move comes as a largely symbolic gesture, as several key producers are unable to boost output due to ongoing disruptions from the US-Israeli conflict in Iran.
The war has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical oil transit route—since late February, halting exports from major OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq. Analysts estimate the closure has removed up to 12–15 million barrels per day from global supply, representing roughly 15 percent of worldwide production.
During a virtual meeting, eight OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—agreed to raise May quotas and pledged to closely monitor market conditions. The group highlighted the significant costs and long recovery times associated with attacks on energy infrastructure, warning that damaged facilities will constrain supply until fully restored.
While the output increase is minor compared to the current disruption, OPEC+ officials indicated that the adjustment signals readiness to expand production once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Global oil prices have surged to a four-year high, hovering near $120 per barrel, as the conflict continues to drive uncertainty. JPMorgan analysts have projected that prices could spike above $150 per barrel if the strait remains closed into mid-May, further increasing transport fuel costs worldwide.