Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, rising more than 3% as uncertainty surrounding a fragile two-week Middle East ceasefire continued to fuel concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies.
The gains came amid fears that shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz may remain limited despite diplomatic efforts to calm tensions.
Brent crude rose by $3.41, or 3.6%, to $98.16 per barrel by 1244 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $4.74, or 5%, to $99.15 a barrel.
The recovery followed a sharp decline in the previous session, when both benchmarks fell below $100 on hopes the ceasefire would allow oil shipments to resume through the waterway.
However, renewed Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon on Thursday raised doubts about the durability of the truce brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, after earlier attacks killed more than 250 people and threatened to derail the agreement.
Analysts said investors remained cautious about removing the geopolitical risk premium from oil prices as uncertainty persists over U.S.-Iran negotiations and the outlook for energy flows through the Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial maritime route linking oil producers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar to global markets, normally carries around 20% of the world’s oil and gas supply.
Shipping traffic through the channel has remained minimal since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28, with only a handful of vessels passing through in the last 24 hours, according to ship-tracking data.
Industry experts warn that even if shipments resume, heightened military presence, potential sea mines and rising insurance costs could continue to hamper tanker movements.
Iran has reportedly issued navigation maps showing safe passages around mines, while regional energy infrastructure remains at risk after Tehran launched strikes on oil facilities in neighbouring countries.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs lowered its second-quarter 2026 oil price forecasts, citing the temporary ceasefire, trimming its Brent outlook to $90 per barrel and U.S. crude to $87.