The U.S. solar industry could see a 27% drop in capacity additions between 2026 and 2030, according to a joint report released Monday by the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and energy research firm Wood Mackenzie.
The report highlights the impact of former President Donald Trump’s tax law, which scaled back subsidies that had previously fueled renewable energy growth. This policy reversal poses a major threat to clean energy progress once championed under President Joe Biden’s climate agenda.
Industry leaders argue the changes could stifle investment, raise household and business energy costs, and weaken the resilience of the national power grid. Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of SEIA, warned that the administration’s stance is “deliberately stifling investment” in a vital economic sector.
Despite these challenges, solar and storage projects still made up 82% of new U.S. electricity capacity in the first half of 2025, showing the industry’s continued momentum. At the same time, domestic solar module manufacturing capacity expanded by 13 GW, reaching a total of 55 GW.
Interestingly, more than three-quarters of solar capacity installed in 2025 was concentrated in states that supported Trump in the last election, including Texas, Indiana, and Florida. This underscores the broad bipartisan demand for renewable energy despite policy hurdles.
However, the cost of solar systems is rising. Utility-scale projects increased by 4%, residential systems by 2%, and commercial systems by 10% in the second quarter of 2025, largely due to tariffs, permitting delays, and other overhead expenses.
The revised forecast signals an uncertain path ahead for U.S. solar expansion, as developers and investors grapple with higher costs and reduced federal support.
For consumers, the slowdown could mean slower adoption of clean energy and potential strain on future electricity supplies.
Industry advocates are calling for policy changes that can restore investor confidence and keep America’s clean energy transition on track.