OPEC has revised upward its long-term oil demand outlook for the third consecutive year, projecting that global consumption will increase by 19 million barrels per day, or 18 per cent, by 2050.
In its latest World Oil Outlook released on June 18, the organisation forecasts demand will reach 124.1 million barrels per day by mid-century, up from 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025. This marks an upward revision from its previous projection of 122.9 million barrels per day.
OPEC attributed the stronger outlook to heightened global focus on energy security, particularly following geopolitical disruptions and shifting policy priorities that have slowed the pace of transition away from hydrocarbons. The group said oil will continue to hold the largest share of the global energy mix.
The report also contrasts sharply with projections from the International Energy Agency, which expects oil demand to peak around 2030 before gradually declining under its stated policies scenario. OPEC, however, argues that recent policy adjustments in several regions are supporting continued oil consumption growth.
According to the outlook, demand increases will be driven mainly by road transport, petrochemicals and aviation, while the oil industry will require an estimated $17.7 trillion in investment between 2026 and 2050 to meet future demand.