Germany could face natural gas supply shortages during a harsh winter in early 2027 even if storage facilities reach currently planned filling levels, gas storage association INES warned on Tuesday.
The group said storage booking levels of 76% would only be adequate under mild weather conditions, citing lessons from the previous winter when colder temperatures sharply increased withdrawals from reserves.
According to INES managing director Sebastian Heinermann, a cold-weather scenario similar to 2010 could leave Germany with supply deficits of around 20 terawatt hours between January and March 2027.
The association added that more than 35% of daily gas demand could go uncovered on some days if temperatures plunge significantly during the heating season.
INES stressed that storage facilities must not only be reserved in advance but also physically filled to safeguard supply security during extreme winter conditions.
However, the group said weak market incentives are discouraging gas injections because winter gas prices currently trade below summer delivery prices amid disruptions in global LNG supply.
Germany’s average gas storage level stood at about 26% on May 1, 2026, marking the lowest level for that period since the 2021/2022 energy crisis.
The warning highlights Europe’s continued vulnerability to supply shocks despite efforts to strengthen energy security following the region’s recent gas market turmoil.
Storage withdrawals in Germany nearly doubled month-on-month in January due to colder weather, with reserves covering 38% of the country’s gas demand during the month, INES said.
The latest outlook raises concerns over whether Europe’s largest economy can maintain stable energy supplies through prolonged cold spells without stronger storage replenishment measures.