Traders placed a $430 million bet on falling crude prices shortly before U.S. President Donald Trump announced an extension of a ceasefire with Iran, raising fresh concerns about market-sensitive information leaks.
The transactions occurred between 1954 and 1956 GMT on Tuesday, just 15 minutes before Trump said the ceasefire would be extended indefinitely at 2010 GMT.
According to LSEG data, about 4,260 Brent crude futures contracts were sold during the period, a move that signaled expectations of a price decline.
The trades were executed in post-settlement hour typically a low-liquidity window making the scale and timing of the activity particularly unusual.
Prices initially showed little reaction, slipping marginally from $100.91 to $100.66 per barrel, before dropping sharply to $96.83 immediately after the announcement.
By midday Wednesday, Brent crude futures had recovered slightly to trade around $99.2 per barrel.
The latest trades mark the third such incident in April and the fourth overall, with similar well-timed bets preceding major announcements related to the Iran conflict.
Previous positions included a $500 million wager in March and a combined $2.1 billion in April, highlighting a pattern of large, directional trades ahead of key geopolitical developments.
Analysts say the repeated timing of these bets has intensified scrutiny over potential insider knowledge or coordinated market positioning.
U.S. authorities are already investigating earlier trades linked to policy shifts on Iran, as concerns grow over market integrity and the influence of geopolitical decisions on oil pricing.