Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026, lifting its Brent crude forecast to $60 a barrel and its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast to $56, citing weaker-than-expected stockpiles in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries.
In a note to clients, the Wall Street bank said the upward revision reflects lower OECD inventories and a gradual easing of a previously assumed geopolitical risk premium, even as it continues to assume no major supply disruption related to Iran.
For the full year 2026, Goldman now expects Brent to average $64 per barrel, up from a prior projection of $56, and WTI to average $60, up from $52.
Despite the revised forecasts, the bank maintained its view that the global oil market will remain in surplus in 2026, projecting a supply surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day, assuming no resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Goldman downgraded its supply outlook for producers including Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq on production shortfalls, while raising expectations for supply from the Americas and core OPEC nations with spare capacity.
The bank also said it expects OPEC+ to begin gradually increasing output in the second quarter of 2026 as inventories have not built up as previously anticipated.
Oil prices eased about 1% on Monday as the U.S. and Iran prepared for a third round of nuclear talks, which eased fears of an escalating conflict, with Brent around $71 a barrel and WTI near $65.75 in early trading.
Goldman flagged downside risks to its Q4 forecasts of about $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI if potential sanctions relief for Iran or Russia accelerates supply growth and increases landed stock builds.
Looking further ahead, the firm forecasts Brent and WTI to average $65 and $61 respectively in 2027, rising toward $70 and $66 per barrel by December 2027 on expectations of solid demand growth and slowing supply expansion.